April 2026: +2.9%, energies carried, indexes bled
Published retrospectively: this report and the others for November 2025 to April 2026 were first published together on 9 and 10 May 2026, after the months they cover.
Live, real-capital, fully systematic. Live track record → · Methodology →
The numbers
| This month | YTD | Since inception | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return | +2.94% | +33.74% | +31.06% |
| Sharpe (ann.) | +1.53 | +2.05 | +1.53 |
| Max drawdown (in window) | −6.75% | −11.55% | −11.55% |
| Hit rate (daily) | 61.5% | 60.0% | 55.7% |
| Drawdown state at MTD | −0.4% from peak |
The April Sharpe (1.53) is in line with inception-to-date (1.53) and well below YTD (2.05). YTD is flattered by Q1; the calendar-year average is the right reference, not the YTD figure.
What drove it
Top contributors
- HEATOIL — +4.33% (energies). Heating oil was the single largest contributor, with the long position running for most of the month against a steady tape.
- CRUDE_W_mini — +2.58% (energies). The crude long earned across most of April; the position survived the April 7 risk-off day intact.
- SOYOIL — +0.53% (ags). A smaller but consistent gain, riding the same broad commodity bid as the energy complex.
- EU-UTILS — +0.40% (equity sectors). One of the few equity-related positions that worked.
- COPPER-micro — +0.30% (metals). Modest contribution from the long.
Worst contributors
- GASOILINE — −2.90% (energies). Whipsawed against the rest of the energy complex — the system was positioned across multiple energy contracts and gasoline gave back what heating oil and crude delivered, partially.
- NASDAQ_micro — −2.30% (equity index). The largest equity-index drag of the month.
- ALUMINIUM — −0.69% (metals). Small but persistent loss against a noisy tape.
- DOW — −0.52% (equity index). Same story as NASDAQ — equity indexes did not cooperate.
- CAD — −0.51% (FX). A loss without a clean narrative; volatility was unremarkable.
Asset class attribution: energies were the dominant theme — heating oil and crude carried the month. Equity indexes were the largest drag. Metals and FX were small net contributors at the asset-class level despite individual losers. 40 instruments produced non-zero contribution, out of a ~200-instrument universe — characteristic for a slow trend system in a month without a single dominant macro narrative.
Note on the math: the headline return (+2.94%) is the time-weighted return computed from daily NAV. The instrument-level contributions above sum to ~+1.9% — the difference is interest on idle cash, financing, and residual P&L not attributed to specific futures positions. This will be reconciled more cleanly once the per-day attribution table (shipping in PR 7) has accumulated a full month of data.
How the rules performed
Rule-family attribution is not yet available for April — the persistence pipeline (daily_attribution.rule_contributions) shipped this week and the table is empty for historical days. May 2026 will be the first month with full rule-level attribution. From a qualitative read of the live signal mix, EWMAC variants (medium-fast trend) were the dominant driver in energies; carry was a secondary contributor; mean-reversion was approximately flat.
This section will become quantitative starting next month.
What changed
No methodology or operational changes this month. Three roll orders executed (routine futures rolls). No data outages, broker incidents, or universe changes.
Current positioning
- Annualised portfolio risk: 6.4% (target: 25% — system is materially de-risked relative to target, consistent with current signal strength)
- Margin usage: Normal (9.1%)
- Asset-class tilt: net long energies, net short equity indexes, mixed metals, small net long FX (USD-funded longs in CAD, MXP, NZD against shorts in EUR/AUD)
- Universe: 200 instruments, no additions or removals this month
Looking forward
The drawdown state going into May is shallow (−0.4% from peak). The biggest single-day loss of April (−4.6% on April 7) was absorbed and recovered within ten trading days. There is nothing in the current positioning or signal mix that would change the system's behaviour into May; April's allocation will continue to evolve via the same daily forecast → optimal-position → buffer-trade pipeline.
The two things worth watching going into May:
- Whether the energy trade survives a continuation move higher or rolls over — it has been the largest single contributor this year and concentration risk has been creeping up.
- Whether equity-index shorts find a regime that works — they have been a steady drag YTD, and a sustained equity sell-off would be the cleanest validation of the current positioning.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Returns are calculated from broker-reported account values, so they reflect execution prices and any commissions, fees, financing charges, interest and currency effects included in those values. Cost breakdowns shown separately are estimates. These returns do not deduct advisory fees that would apply to a client account. The account shown is the operator's own (proprietary) capital. Full methodology and disclaimers on the live dashboard.
Plaintape LLC is registered with the CFTC as a Commodity Trading Advisor (NFA ID 0580378) and its NFA membership application is pending. The firm is not yet accepting client accounts. Registration does not imply that the CFTC or NFA has approved or endorsed the firm, its trading program, or the material on this site. Registration-status note added 2026-08-09; it describes the firm's status today, not its status during the period reported above.