January 2026: +4.72%, FX dominated both sides; gold was the largest detractor
Published retrospectively: this report and the others for November 2025 to April 2026 were first published together on 9 and 10 May 2026, after the months they cover.
Live, real-capital, fully systematic. Live track record → · Methodology →
The numbers
| This month | YTD | Since inception | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return | +4.72% | +4.72% | +2.33% |
| Sharpe (ann.) | +2.97 | +2.97 | +0.63 |
| Max drawdown (in window) | −3.46% | −3.46% | −4.97% |
| Hit rate (daily) | 54.5% | 54.5% | 50.8% |
| Drawdown state at MTD | −3.5% from peak |
What drove it
Top contributors
- MXP — +1.31% (FX). The largest single contributor; the peso position carried for most of the month against the USD-funded FX block.
- NASDAQ_micro — +1.22% (equity index). Long equity index position worked through the January tape without major reversals.
- GBP — +0.52% (FX). Second-largest FX contributor; held all month and ground out a steady gain alongside MXP and CAD.
- EU-UTILS — +0.45% (equity sectors). One of the few European equity-sector positions in the green this month.
- CAD — +0.38% (FX). Third FX contributor in the top five — the USD-funded FX block was the dominant theme.
Worst contributors
- GOLD_micro — −1.41% (metals). The single largest detractor; the gold position caught the January rally on the wrong side.
- JGB — −0.77% (rates). Long-end Japanese rates short reversed; the second-largest detractor was a rates trade, not an FX one.
- PLN — −0.70% (FX). PLN appears in the worst-five list for the first of three consecutive months — pattern worth watching.
- GAS_US_mini — −0.52% (energies). Natural gas long gave back through the back half of the month.
- JPY — −0.40% (FX). JPY short was on the wrong side of cross-asset hedging flows; small loss.
Asset class attribution: FX was the dominant theme — three of the top five (MXP, GBP, CAD) and two of the bottom five (PLN, JPY) came from the FX block. Gold was the single largest detractor at the asset-class level. Equity-index longs were the second axis of contribution. 29 instruments produced non-zero contribution this month.
How the rules performed
Rule-family attribution is not yet available for January — daily_attribution.rule_contributions was empty for the days in this window. This section will become quantitative once the persistence pipeline has accumulated a full month of data.
What changed
No methodology or operational changes this month.
Current positioning
- Annualised portfolio risk: —
- Margin usage: —
Looking forward
January's gain trimmed the drawdown state from −4.9% (end-Dec) to −3.5% — meaningful progress but the system was still below peak entering February. The +2.97 monthly Sharpe is high; the inception-to-date Sharpe of +0.63 is the more honest reference for what to expect. The recovery came primarily through the FX sleeve; metals (gold short, specifically) was the consistent drag. Two recurring themes worth flagging: PLN appeared in the worst-five list this month, and gold was the largest single detractor — both warrant attention if they repeat in February.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Returns are calculated from broker-reported account values, so they reflect execution prices and any commissions, fees, financing charges, interest and currency effects included in those values. Cost breakdowns shown separately are estimates. These returns do not deduct advisory fees that would apply to a client account. The account shown is the operator's own (proprietary) capital. Full methodology and disclaimers on the live dashboard.
Plaintape LLC is registered with the CFTC as a Commodity Trading Advisor (NFA ID 0580378) and its NFA membership application is pending. The firm is not yet accepting client accounts. Registration does not imply that the CFTC or NFA has approved or endorsed the firm, its trading program, or the material on this site. Registration-status note added 2026-08-09; it describes the firm's status today, not its status during the period reported above.